As 2024 draws to a close, the question on the minds of many prospective immigrants is how many Invitations to Apply (ITAs) the Immigration, Refugees, and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) will issue through the Express Entry system in December. By analyzing historical trends, government targets, and policy changes, we can provide an informed estimate of the numbers and the candidates most likely to benefit.
Understanding ITAs and Their Importance
An ITA is a formal invitation for candidates in the Express Entry pool to apply for permanent residency (PR) in Canada. These invitations are strategically issued by IRCC to meet specific immigration goals outlined in the annual Immigration Levels Plan.
Historical Trends in ITA Issuances
To estimate the number of ITAs expected in December, we turn to historical data from previous years. Between 2021 and 2023, the proportion of ITAs issued between July and December relative to the following year’s landing targets has been consistent, ranging between 43% and 46%. For example:
| Year | ITAs (July–Dec) | Next Year’s Landing Target | Proportion (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 34,738 | 74,900 | 46.38% |
| 2022 | 25,509 | 55,900 | 45.63% |
| 2023 | 35,750 | 82,800 | 43.18% |
| 2024 | 50,718 | 110,770 | 45.79% |
On average, excluding outliers, about 45.24% of ITAs for the following year’s target are issued in the latter half of the previous year.
Estimating ITAs for December 2024
For 2025, IRCC has set a landing target of 124,680 new permanent residents through the Express Entry system. Between July and November 2024, the department issued 52,888 ITAs, which amounts to approximately 42.42% of the 2025 target.
If ITA issuance continues at this pace, December could see an additional 3,522 ITAs issued. This projection assumes the trends observed in previous years hold steady and IRCC does not deviate significantly from its historical practices.
Factors Influencing ITA Numbers
While projections provide a useful framework, the actual number of ITAs issued in December may vary due to several factors:
- Processing Times: ITAs issued now are likely to contribute to 2025 admissions due to processing lags, which range between 6 and 16 months.
- Policy Adjustments: IRCC might alter ITA issuance to align with emerging immigration priorities or unforeseen circumstances.
- Economic Conditions: Labour market needs in key sectors may prompt targeted ITA rounds.
Candidate Profiles Likely to Receive ITAs
IRCC’s 2025-2027 Immigration Levels Plan offers insights into the candidate profiles prioritized under Express Entry. For 2025, the Federal High-Skilled allocation—under which Express Entry falls—is divided into two categories:
1. Federal Economic Priorities
- Admissions Target: 41,700 in 2025.
- Focus: Candidates with skills in in-demand sectors like healthcare, skilled trades, and French-language proficiency.
- Eligible Occupations:
- Healthcare professionals.
- Skilled tradespeople.
- Candidates with strong French language skills.
- Francophone Targets: Canada aims to increase the proportion of Francophone immigrants outside Quebec to 8.5% in 2025 and 10% by 2027.
2. In-Canada Focus
- Admissions Target: 82,980 in 2025.
- Focus: Candidates already residing in Canada, such as:
- Canadian Experience Class (CEC) applicants.
- Provincial Nominee Program (PNP) candidates aligned with Express Entry.
- Possible inclusions from Federal Skilled Worker Program (FSWP) and Federal Skilled Trades Program (FSTP).
This division reflects Canada’s dual strategy of addressing labour shortages while leveraging the existing talent pool within the country.
Recent Trends in ITA Allocations
An analysis of the last 20 Express Entry draws (August–November 2024) reveals the following distribution of ITAs:
| Draw Type | Number of Draws |
|---|---|
| Canadian Experience Class | 7 |
| Provincial Nominee Program | 7 |
| French-language Proficiency | 4 |
| Trade Occupations | 1 |
| Healthcare Occupations | 1 |
These trends indicate that CEC and PNP candidates are likely to dominate ITA allocations in December, followed by those with expertise in healthcare and trades or strong French language skills.
The Bigger Picture: Canada’s Immigration Ambitions
Canada’s ambitious immigration targets aim to address its economic and demographic challenges. With an aging population and significant labour shortages, the country depends on skilled immigration to sustain its economy. According to the IRCC, immigrants contribute nearly 100% of labour force growth and account for 75% of population growth annually.
As part of this strategy, Express Entry continues to play a pivotal role in attracting global talent while ensuring the economic integration of newcomers.
A Promising Opportunity
For aspiring immigrants, the projected ITA numbers in December offer hope and clarity. While the estimate of 3,522 ITAs provides a benchmark, candidates should prepare for potential variances based on IRCC’s evolving priorities.
Indian applicants, in particular, stand a strong chance of receiving ITAs, given the country’s representation in healthcare, skilled trades, and technology sectors—key areas of focus for Canada. Staying informed and optimizing Express Entry profiles remains crucial for seizing this golden opportunity to embark on a new chapter in Canada.
